Assess seasonal forecast performance across past seasons.
Inputs, example and sources
Japan Meteorological Agency · Outline of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Appendix A Verification Indices 2024
Government publication · Sections A.3.1 and A.3.2, equations A.3.1 and A.3.3, printed page 239, PDF page 7
The Brier score is checked for binary events. The prototype permits a supplied reference forecast; confirm its independent baseline and comparability before interpreting skill.
Keep the same place, observation period, definitions, units and source versions.
Analysis inputs. Archived probability for the defined event [fraction]; Observed event indicator [events]; Independent reference forecast probability [fraction]; Forecast issue date; Event verification date; Predefined event/category and reference basis
Other required evidence. Probabilistic forecasts; observed categories; hindcast period; skill measure; baseline.
Fictional worked example · 2025
Laggala Pallegama — seasonal forecasts · Laggala Pallegama
| Input or result | Value | Unit |
|---|
| Archived probability for the defined event | 0.7 | fraction |
| Observed event indicator | 1 | events |
| Independent reference forecast probability | 0.4 | fraction |
| Forecast issue date | 2025-03-01 | |
| Event verification date | 2025-06-01 | |
| Predefined event/category and reference basis | Sample below-normal seasonal rainfall event | |
| Squared probability error | 0.09 | 0–1 |
|---|
Define one event, lead, observation category thresholds and an independent reference. Do not apply rainfall RMSE to probabilities or interpret one score as complete calibration.
Proposed checking role. Duty meteorologist and climate/forecast verification specialist.
After the action. Out-of-sample errors, bias and decision-relevant forecast performance.
- JMA numerical weather prediction outline — Government publication. AppendixA.3, equationsA.3.1 and A.3.3. Brier score and reference skill for binary probability forecasts; the prototype uses one specified event, not an undifferentiated seasonal score.
- SHARED domain decision contracts — Validation required. Domain decision rules and matching fictional examples. Local comparisons, constraints, source matching, sorting and follow-up proposals; developer checks do not establish scientific or client approval.
Institution and data context
- Department of Meteorology products — Government publication. Full method locator not established. Institutional context; does not establish the calculation or local approval.
- Agro-climatology and climate change division — Government publication. Full method locator not established. Institutional context; does not establish the calculation or local approval.
- WMO SPI user guide record — Institution publication. Full method locator not established. Institutional context; does not establish the calculation or local approval.
Confirm local scope, data rights, parameters and responsible roles in this Institution review. Published components retain their source; they do not approve the local application.